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By Paul Scheurer © 1995
Download audio from Paul's
broadcast.
A couple of
months ago I went to the State Capitol in
St. Paul, Minnesota. And at a committee
hearing, I heard one lawmaker say, "We don't
want to under-react and we don't want to
over-react." Another lawmaker replied, "I'd
rather over-react."
They were
discussing legislation in response to Orange
County in Southern California. It's the
county that went bankrupt because of a losing
gamble on interest rates using derivatives.
Of course
there should be some laws to control how
the taxpayer's money is handled, but what's
the real problem here? And isn't information
better than regulation?
Looking at
all the disasters with derivatives, I wonder:
didn't these people understand one of the
iron-clad laws of economics: that high return
means high risk. Well, maybe not ... especially
if they were trusting the advice of a commissioned
salesman -- also known as a "financial consultant".
Unfortunately, there is no free lunch in
financial markets.
BUT, there
IS information in financial markets. And
it's possible to use that information to
get an independent evaluation of risk, a
second opinion, -- the opinion of the market
itself! It's away to use the power of the
marketplace for the public good. And I'd
trust the market any day over a salesman
on commission.
I'm not suggesting
that financial markets are infallible. After
all, you've probably heard the old saying
that the stock market has predicted 9 out
of the last 5 recessions. But the bond market
does contain enough information to serve
as a scale, a scale to weigh the risk of
ANY investment in the bond market. Every
state has something like a Bureau of Weights
and Measures, and every state should also
have a risk evaluation service on the Web
for local units of government like school
boards or counties.
One final
point: in 1994, investment brokers and bankers
had 5 Billion Dollars in revenue from trading
derivatives. Their customers lost at least
13 Billion.
From Minneapolis,
Minnesota, this is Paul Scheurer for Marketplace.
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